Why gut reactions rule.
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Unconscious decision-making strategies, based on experience and information accumulated over many years, are central to how the best-performing people in any field make decisions, according to Malcolm Gladwell, author of Blink and The Tipping Point. But developing this kind of expertise takes far longer than most of us believe and our instincts are easily confused by external influences, he warned.
"Some of the wisest decisions we make cannot, by definition, come with an explanation and it's important that we recognise this," said Gladwell (pictured, right). He pointed out that "experts" from investors to surgeons to sporting champions based many good decisions on instinct.
When US tennis coach Vic Braden asked several leading players how they hit a topspin shot, they all told him that they rolled their wrists at the moment of impact, yet, when he filmed them, none of them did this, Gladwell said. Braden worked out that they played instinctively--ie, with no conscious idea of how they did it. He came to the conclusion that there was "nothing to be learned about tennis by talking to top tennis players".
This has implications for many business areas, including marketing, Gladwell said. "If Andre Agassi can't tell you how he hits a topspin forehand, how can a housewife tell you why she likes a tie?"
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