Technology and Network Predictions.

Position::DATABASE AND NETWORK INTELLIGENCE: 2016 RESEARCH
 
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In 2016, Analysys Mason expects the market for Internet of Things (loT) and M2M solutions to mature markedly, as some of the key questions facing operators around technology, use cases and opportunities will be resolved.

PREDICTION 1:

The contest for worldwide dominance in LPWA networking technology will be confined to NarrowBand loT (NB-loT) and LoRal

We expect NB-loT and LoRa to prevail because: LoRa has significant momentum, boasting networks in five continents. The technology has backing from vendors such as Cisco and IBM and communications service providers (CSPs) such as Du, Swisscom and KPN.

The weight of the established telecoms industry (including Ericsson, Huawei, Intel, Nokia, Qualcomm and Vodafone) will be enough to make NB-loT one of the main contenders.

Other technology options look more likely to be adopted in only a small number of countries.

* SIGFOX has a strong position in France and has announced a number of network deployments elsewhere, but lacks broad industrial support. Its business model may also be unattractive to many potential partners.

* Other technologies such as RPMA, which is being used by Ingenu, and Weightless SIG have not built significant momentum.

* Niche players, such as Telensa, will continue to win smart city contracts but do not have the scale of backing of LoRa or NB-loT. Even if our prediction that NB-loT and LoRa will prevail proves to be incorrect and other technologies succeed instead, we expect to be in a much clearer position by the end of 2016 than at the end of 2015.

PEDICTION 2:

Some will be disappointed by the number of LPWA connections in 2016; they shouldn't be

* Analysys Mason is forecasting that LPWA will 'only' have around 50 million connections by the end of 2016. Compared with the forecasted billions of loT connections, this number will disappoint some. However, it shouldn't because most of the initial use cases--especially for smart city projects--are for large contracts that take years to finalise.

* We expect connection volumes to accelerate towards the end of the decade as greater clarity emerges about the technologies, ecosystems develop and more applications emerge.

PREDICTION 3:

More CSPs will publicly outline 3G network decommissioning strategies in 2016, partly because M2M is now a constraining factor on 2G network decommissioning

While some operators (for example, AT&T and Singtel) have announced plans to close their 2G networks, Telenor Group instead plans to maintain 2G...

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