Harold Wilson once remarked that a week is a long time in politics. These days, on Cyprus's political scene, a week can seems like an eternity.
As voters in the south headed off to the polls to elect a new president--replacing Glafcos Clerides with Tassos Papadopoulos--speculation continued about whether Greek and Turkish Cypriots will be able to agree to resolve the 29-year division of the island. And still, despite the personal intervention of the UN's Secretary General Kofi Annan who travelled to Nicosia in late February there is no, obvious answer.
In late January, hopes were running high that a settlement was imminent, as pressure built on a reluctant Rauf Denktash, leader of the Turkish Cypriot community, to sign the peace plan presented by Kofi Annan. Large-scale demonstrations in northern Nicosia--one comprising some 70,000 people, or more than one third of the north's population according to a local Reuters journalist--led many to assume that his time-honoured policy of endless but unyielding negotiation was unsustainable. The fact that Washington and the European Union were pushing Turkey towards a solution--with Brussels indicating that Ankara's Cyprus policy would be a key factor in determining its suitability for eventual accession to the EU--also seemed to suggest that Denktash's procrastination could not be continued. Indeed, when Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's ruling AKP leader, went public with his belief that Denktash's personalisation of the Cyprus issue was unsustainable, many observers started writing the latter's political obituary.
Yet a few weeks later, things look as if they are back to square one. Denktash's public appearances, far from suggesting a man under pressure instead confirm that this veteran figure feels very much back in control of events again. In interviews with the Turkish media the 79 year-old internationally unrecognised president of the "Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus" suggested that if Ankara wanted him to step aside he would do so, but he saw absolutely no signs that this was the case.
"The military and key elements within the Ankara establishment seem to have closed ranks behind Denktash once again," says James Ker-Lindsay, head of the Nicosia-based Civilitas consultancy. Pointing to recent statements from four leading figures within the Turkish military, he says there are growing signs that it is prepared to tough it out with Erdogan and his apparent desire to ease Denktash out and sign...