Consequences of altercation in the Gulf.

Author:Behbudi, Behrooz
Position::Current Affairs/IRAN


THIS SAGA COMMENCES WHEN IRANIAN fighters engage an American Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV), above the waters of the Gulf, by firing upon it. The engagement, according to a statement by Amir-Ali Hajizadeh, head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's Aerospace Division, was apparently "a warning". He subsequently cautioned the American forces: "If not heeded, they should expect more stern actions in the future". However, he did not refer to the exact nature of these possible future actions. By 'stern' future operations, does Mr. Hajizadeh mean an altercation of the Iranian and American forces in the Gulf? In such a scenario, even the most optimistic commanders of the Iranian forces know, Iran would sustain greater loses. Perhaps, the serious future encounter, which the commander cited, is intended to signal a military engagement of American Allies in the region as being an option Iran might exercise. In which case Iran might even militarily encounter a neighbouring country; much like Saddam's Iraq did. These postulations are offered due to the fact that commanders of the Revolutionary Guard have, on numerous occasions asserted, that any altercation with the US will be pursued by Iranian Forces beyond the country's borders and is likely to spill-over into other countries. It is also possible that by 'stern actions', the commander of the Revolutionary Guard is indicating the potential use of Hizbullah and its forces against Israel. Moreover, by consequently sending an UAV of their own --with Hassan Nasrallah, the Leader of Hizbullah, proudly proclaimed its assemblage to have taken place in Lebanon--it is also probable that the Iranians wish to flex their military muscle in the region and are giving prior notice to America and her allies.


All three possibilities above--Iran's military engagement of a neighbouring country, the use of Hizbullah against Israel, or the flexing of Iranian military muscle with a view to greater presence in the region--are all probable and have the same outcome. In any event, possible future military altercations of either sort above mentioned will spill beyond Iranian boarders and engulf the region. Undoubtedly, implicating either of the above mentionned plans would lead to the complete destruction of Iran; the Islamic Republic does not have the military capability to simultaneously take on America and her western allies, as well as other countries in the region and Iranian...

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