Assad: on his way out?

Author:Karkouti, Mustapha
Position::Bashar al-Assad

Yes, one can safely say that Syrian President Bashar Assad could unfortunately be winning the battle, but not necessarily the war. At best, he will continue for a little longer, but eventually he is on his way out. So far, his line of command seems, for now, to be sustainable--thanks to Iranian-Russian direct support, but these same supporters will, at one point, have to consider different outcomes that would ease the way for a negotiated retirement. This would nicely fit with the Russian proposition of a 'federal solution' as Moscow recently suggested for a final settlement in the country. Of course there is nothing concrete yet but the latest agreement of both United States and Russia on a joint plan to cease hostilities in Syria, is of a great significance at this critical moment of the Syrian war. Both the Syrian government and the main opposition umbrella group have accepted the terms of the joint deal between Moscow and Washington. The growing threat from Daesh (the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) has obviously made it logically possible for the Americans and Russians to reach such a deal. Their inability to speak previously in one voice and act with conviction has most certainly encouraged extremist groups such as Daesh and Jabhat Al Nusra to seize large sections not only in Syria, but also in Iraq. Assad had already questioned whether it would be possible to cease hostilities and implement the ceasefire. BuAssad will not decide the future of war or peace in Syria without the full blessing of his main backers. Russian air strikes and direct financial and logistic support from Iran have lately helped win key battles in the five-year-long war. In fact, Assad would have gone long ago had it not been for the help extended by Iran since the conflict began. Even this direct help with thousands of Iranian troops and special forces on the ground were insufficient to sustain the Assad government as the time went on. Consequently, the...

To continue reading